I recently read Philip Tetlock's book Expert Political Judgment, which presents his 20-year study about experts' ability to predict the future. The insights he gleaned about the so-called experts who ...

America's intelligence agencies are the biggest and most sophisticated in the world. To the greatest extent possible, they should foresee major political events--like the unrest that has rocked the ...

Hedgehogs get too much glory, political scientist Philip Tetlock has suggested in books such as Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? and the more recent Superforecasting: The ...

History often isn’t kind to those who go on the record making predictions. Albert Einstein once said that nuclear energy would never be a thing, while Margaret Thatcher predicted that a woman would ...

Early in his career, psychologist and researcher Philip Tetlock gained notoriety for his work exploring how well people predict the future – something we’d all like to do right now. Spoiler alert: ...

Every night for nearly a month last year, Reed Roberts woke up at 3 a.m. to check the newest real-time data on something not very many people think about: the melting of Arctic Sea ice. This unusual ...

Philip Tetlock, who teaches psychology, business and political science at the University of California, Berkeley, is also the author of “Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?” ...

The price of oil will soar to $200 per barrel. A bioterror attack will occur before 2013. Rising food prices could spark riots in Britain. The Arctic Ocean will be ...

Bryan Caplan is in his pomp, reviewing Philip Tetlock’s "Expert Political Judgement": Tetlock underestimates experts in general, and does too little to discourage demagogues from misinterpreting his ...

Philip Tetlock says there’s a conflict in the U.S. intelligence community between “political safety” and granular accuracy when predicting the future. To get business right, finance chiefs need to be ...